Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at 松江貓 HVN店冠賽
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1441
· median 1441
· range 1441–1441
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
974
Q1 1197
Q3 1441
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.1% | -23.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
